financetom
Pound-Dollar
financetom
/
Forex
/
Pound-Dollar
/
Pound to Dollar Below Parity? Citi says this is Now Possible
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Pound to Dollar Below Parity? Citi says this is Now Possible
Mar 22, 2024 2:18 AM

Image © Adobe Images

"Sterling getting Pounded," is the heading of a new strategy note from Citi, in which analysts warn a sharp decline below 1.10 against the Dollar beckons.

Citi, the world's largest prime broker of foreign exchange, says its technical strategy team is now looking to position for an extension of the long-running decline in the Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD), by buying put options.

This is a strategy that delivers a profit when an exchange rate or any other financial asset falls.

"We are buying a 4 month 1.0770 GBPUSD put," says Tom Fitzpatrick, a technical strategist at Citi, in a note seen by Pound Sterling Live.

"The long term GBPUSD chart now truly looks awful," he says, offering a thesis for the trade.

But a fall to 1.0770 could be a relatively conservative forecast, as Fitzpatrick has studied GBP/USD's long term charts and finds "a major double top forming as a continuation that suggests a move to and possibly below parity".

"There is no material support now (outside of the March 2020 spike low just above 1.14 until the major lows posted in 1985 at 1.0520," says Fitzpatrick.

He says a monthly close below 1.1760 will be a bearish outside month as a continuation.

The exchange rate is currently quoted at 1.1816.

Citi economist Ben Nabarro this month caused a storm by predicting UK inflation could be set to storm towards 19%, amidst surging energy prices.

Further negatives that should weigh on the Pound include numerous strikes by disgruntled workers and surging short-end interest rates.

It is meanwhile noted these surging interest rates are no longer supporting the pound, as was the case in the past.

"As a consequence, we think this move can be much more aggressive than markets might suspect," says Fitzpatrick.

However, for the Pound much still hinges on the actions to be taken by the incoming Prime Minister.

Liz Truss is almost certain to replace Boris Johnson and there is media speculation she will bring in an emergency budget as soon as September, to deal with the impact of surging gas prices.

We note here that any steps that ultimately limits the impact on consumers and businesses of energy price rises could crimp the peak in UK inflation.

After all, Citi's end-of-days 19% CPI forecast assumes no additional fiscal measures are taken by the government.

For the Pound, therefore, anything that can nip the inflation surge and restore consumer confidence would be supportive and could ultimately preserve it from any major losses over coming weeks and months.

However, the cost will be huge and risks bloating the UK's debt burden to the extent international investors are less willing to invest in Sterling assets.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
The GBPUSD price resumes the decline - Forecast today - 24-10-2024
The GBPUSD price resumes the decline - Forecast today - 24-10-2024
Oct 27, 2024
The GBPUSD price provided clear negative trades yesterday to reach 1.2900$ barrier, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the correctional bearish trend, which targets 1.2866$ as a next station, noting that breaking this level will extend the bearish wave to reach 61.8% Fibonacci correction level around 1.2735$. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, noting...
The GBPUSD price attempts to recover - Forecast today - 25-10-2024
The GBPUSD price attempts to recover - Forecast today - 25-10-2024
Oct 27, 2024
The GBPUSD price fluctuates around 1.2975$ level after the rise that it witnessed in the previous sessions, waiting to rebound bearishly to resume the correctional bearish trend, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, reminding you that the next target is located at 1.2866$. Holding below 1.3000$ is important to the continuation of the expected decline, as breaching...
Sterling hovers around $1.3 ahead of Bailey's remarks
Sterling hovers around $1.3 ahead of Bailey's remarks
Nov 3, 2024
Sterling climbed in European trade on Tuesday against a basket of major rivals, while recovering from two-month lows against the US dollar, thus hovering around the psychological barrier of $1.3. Now traders await Bank of England Governor Andrew Baileys speech later today, which could provide clues on the future of UK interest rate cuts this year. The Price The GBP/USD...
Sterling recovers after UK labor data
Sterling recovers after UK labor data
Oct 26, 2024
Odds of BOE rate cut in September recede Markets await UK growth data Sterling rose in European trade on Tuesday against a basket of major rivals, holding its ground above three-week lows against the US dollar following important UK labor data. The data confirms the resilience of the UK economy, and bolsters expectations the Bank of England will maintain interest...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved