Image © Adobe Stock & Desiree Caplas.
GBP/AUD spot rate at time of writing: 1.8278Bank transfer rate (indicative guide): 1.7638-1.7766FX specialist providers (indicative guide): 1.7852-1.8113More information on FX specialist rates hereThe Australian Dollar fell against an outperforming British Pound on Thursday but rose against other major currencies following the release of better-than-expected Aussie jobs data.
Australia's Dollar advanced on the greenback and safe-haven Japanese Yen as well as the Kiwi and Canadian Dollars Thursday after the Australian Bureau of Statistics said the economy had created, or recovered from the coronavirus, some 114.7k jobs during July.
The data came alongside an upward revision to June's estimate of new jobs, which rose from 210.8k to 228.4k, and was enough to constrain the unemployment rate in its upward climb.
The official but highly imperfect measure of joblessness rose from 7.4% to 7.5%, but when markets were looking for an increase to 7.8%.
Australia's 'effective unemployment rate,' which includes workers idled by coronavirus containment measures who don't meet the official definition of unemployment, fell to 10.9% in July from 11.2% previously and is down substantially from the 14.9% seen in April.
"AUD/USD lifted after a seemingly strong July labour force report and a stabilisation of the gold price," says Carol Kong, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "EUR/USD extended yesterday’s gains."
Above: GBP/AUD shown at 15-minute intervals alongside AUD/USD (orange line, left axis).
Aussie job numbers beat market expectations but despite this, renewed gains for gold prices and widespread losses for the U.S. Dollar against major currencies, the Aussie lagged many rivals including Sterling on Thursday when it otherwise might have been expected if-not seen to outperform.
GBP/AUD rose alongside other European currencies that may all have been lifted by a fresh Euro-to-Dollar rate attempt to retest its earlier high just above 1.19. GBP/AUD is an amalgamation of GBP/USD and AUD/USD.
AUD/USD and EUR/USD are closely correlated with each other given the Aussie's 'high beta' to risk appetite that's often best reflected in a rising EUR/USD rate and what are often resulting falls in the Dollar Index. The ICE Dollar Index is 57% comprised of EUR/USD flows.
Above: EUR/USD shown at 15-minute intervals alongside AUD/USD (orange line, left axis).
"EURUSD is the key indicator here for an overall direction on the US dollar as the pair rebounded above 1.1800 yesterday and higher still in today’s trade. The high close for the cycle is 1.1877, with 1.1900 a clear chart resistance point after three recent probes of that level that weren’t sustained. A weak USD would help the reflation/strong risk appetite narrative and vice-versa," says Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank.
Wednesday's GBP/USD underperformance came alongside EUR/USD gains and was enough to leave GBP/EUR trading near 1.10. Thursday's GBP/USD gains were necessary to avoid a deeper decline in that exchange rate which might've put more upward pressure on an already-strong trade-weighted Euro.
But without increased momentum for Sterling and GBP/USD, which might require a domestic inlfuence, the strong correlation between AUD/USD and EUR/USD could serve to keep the Pound-to-Australian Dollar rate trapped in the narrow 1.82-to-1.84 range that's confined it thus far in August.
Above: Pound-to-Aussie rate with GBP/USD (yellow), AUD/USD (orange) and EUR/USD (blue).
Effectively, the Pound-to-Australian Dollar rate has this month been wrapped in a giant Euro-to-Dollar straitjacket and the mechanics of this relationship mean it could endure without either a positive or negative domestic catalyst that prompts outperformance or underperformance in GBP/USD.
Widespread U.S. Dollar losses and strong gains in EUR/USD are said to be symptomatic of a 'risk on' mood among investors, who're meant to be trading economic recovery prospects that are allegedly better in Europe than they are North America, or so goes one popular narrative. But Thursday morning's price action in the Euro, Aussie and U.S. Dollar played out amid softness in stock markets, flat oil prices and gains for precious metals.
"G10 FX has been caught in the cross current of two opposing forces the past couple of days as its seemed like there has been large persistent interest to buy USDJPY as well as interest to buy EURUSD back towards the 1.1700 support level. The latter is increasingly looking like an emerging trend and a force that one doesn’t want to be in the way of," says J.P. Morgan's FX dealing desk in London, in a morning missive. "I sit in the USD bearish camp."
Above: USD/JPY in poignant price action with USD/TRY (yellow), EUR/TRY (blue), EUR/USD (orange) and Gold (black).