financetom
Japanese Yen
financetom
/
Forex
/
Japanese Yen
/
Japanese Yen Eyes Fresh Lows on Bank of Japan Sows Confusion: XM.com
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Japanese Yen Eyes Fresh Lows on Bank of Japan Sows Confusion: XM.com
Mar 22, 2024 2:16 AM

Written by Raffi Boyadjian, Lead Investment Analyst at XM.com, an original version of this article can be found here.

The Japanese yen found itself in the familiar position of eyeing fresh lows against its major peers after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly intervened in the bond market on Monday to rein in the steep rise in local yields.

The jump in the 10-year JGB yield came after the BoJ’s surprise move last Friday to adjust its yield curve control policy by widening the target band.

However, the tweak appears to have caused some confusion in the markets as it’s unclear if policymakers are targeting specific levels or ranges within the ±100-bps band around 0%.

For now, 0.60% seems to be a tolerance threshold, which although this is the highest Japan’s 10-year yield has been in nine years, it nevertheless signifies a major drawback for the yen as it puts investors permanently on edge.

The Bank of Japan has quite a task ahead of it in communicating more clarity around this policy shift and Governor Ueda will likely be put to the test in the coming weeks as there is a risk the yen resumes its freefall in the absence of clearer guidance.

The US dollar extended its advance against the yen on Tuesday, hitting a fresh three-week high of 142.84 yen.

But the greenback’s gains weren’t confined to the yen as the euro and pound drifted lower as upside attempts failed.

Whilst investors are more certain than ever that the Fed’s tightening cycle has reached its end, there is also growing confidence that the US economy will avoid a recession.

This is keeping the dollar supported as the economic outlook is notably brighter in the US than in Europe right now.

The Fed appears to share this optimism, which was evident at the July FOMC meeting and repeated by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee yesterday.

Goolsbee did not take the option of a rate hike in September off the table, however, with credit standards continuing to tighten according to the Fed’s own lending survey, investors are hopeful that the existing rate increases will be enough to cool off the economy.

The ISM manufacturing PMI due later today could be crucial in deciding whether this optimism is justified.

Across the Atlantic, the Eurozone economy grew more than expected in the second quarter, but underlying inflation did not decline as much in July as had been predicted. The data out on Monday should have been positive for the euro but doubts remain about whether the ECB will be able to hike rates again.

The Australian dollar wiped out all of the prior day’s 1% gain on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia left the cash rate unchanged at its policy decision.

Although the RBA kept the door open to further tightening, the statement did not provide a very convincing argument of why additional rate increases might be needed and markets are now only 50% sure that the central bank will hike again this year.

The aussie came under so much selling pressure that it even fell against the yen. However, monetary policy is not the only factor hammering the currency as doubts about China’s economic prospects have started to creep back in.

The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July to a six-month low, representing a slight contraction and missing estimates of 50.3. Policymakers in China have been busy in recent weeks devising new measures to boost domestic consumption and the property sector.

But today’s data suggests the stimulus already announced may not be sufficient in reviving momentum in the world’s second-largest economy as the slowdown only seems to be deepening.

Oil futures rallied to three-month highs on Monday on the back of the stimulus headlines but were trading lower today following the poor PMI.

Regional stocks had also enjoyed a bit of a relief rally, while shares on Wall Street were lifted yesterday by upbeat earnings. The earnings season continues in earnest today with results from AMD, BP, Pfizer and Caterpillar on the way.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Yen Tipped to Experience Fresh Bout of Strength but Ultimately seen Lower Over Later Months
Yen Tipped to Experience Fresh Bout of Strength but Ultimately seen Lower Over Later Months
Mar 22, 2024
USD/JPY could slump to 108 briefly in April as a slew of high risk political events could lead investors to hedge using the safety-linked Yen. The exchange rate is quoted at 110.66 at the time of writing. But longer-term the pair is likely to resume appreciating, with 120 in sight...
USD/JPY Forecast to Rise as Rally in Risk Extends
USD/JPY Forecast to Rise as Rally in Risk Extends
Mar 22, 2024
For the same reasons markets are bearish for gold, they are bearish for the Yen. Both are safe-havens and the current risk rally is, therefore, a negative factor. The main reason behind the risk rally is optimisim about the political outlook, firstly that the French election will return Emmanuelle Macron,...
The Yen Cannot Hold these Levels say One Bank; Yes It Can Says Another
The Yen Cannot Hold these Levels say One Bank; Yes It Can Says Another
Mar 22, 2024
The Dollar is likely to reassert its dominance over the Yen after its recent bout of weakness, argues a leading foreign exchange analyst. Indeed, Japanese Yen strength is, “unsustainable” argues Hans Redeker, Chief Strategist at Morgan Stanley who adds it “is likely to be reversed in the coming weeks.” Traditionally...
EUR/JPY Outlook Takes a Dive, More Losses Likely as Major Trendline Pierced
EUR/JPY Outlook Takes a Dive, More Losses Likely as Major Trendline Pierced
Mar 22, 2024
EUR/JPY has broken below key levels which strongly suggest a continuation lower – subject of course to confirmation. The capitulation in the pair was noted by Commerzbank’s technical analyst Karen Jones in a note to clients seen by Pound Sterling Live. In it she says that EUR/JPY’s “near-term outlook” is...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved