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ING: Pound to Euro Rate Could Top 1.20 in Wake of BoE Decision
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ING: Pound to Euro Rate Could Top 1.20 in Wake of BoE Decision
Mar 22, 2024 2:18 AM

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The Bank of England will do enough today to keep the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) buoyant, says ING Bank.

Ahead of the Bank's midday interest rate decision ING says it anticipates an 8-1 vote and "reports of sterling's demise are exaggerated".

"We expect the Bank of England to deliver a 50bp rate hike and there may be less incentive for the BoE to protest against tightening expectations. This could help the pound," says Chris Turner, Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE at ING Bank.

Such an outcome leads ING's strategists to expect EUR/GBP to at least remain steady near the 0.8350 area (GBP/EUR at 1.1976). (Set your FX rate alert here).

ING says the Bank will be conscious of the Pound's performance when delivering its policy update and it will be wary of triggering a decline in the currency.

The Pound fell in the wake of the last Monetary Policy Report in May when Bank economists released their last set of inflation forecasts.

The Bank predicted inflation would be below the 2% target in three years' time, assuming market tightening expectations were delivered.

"This gentle push-back against market tightening expectations clearly has not prevented the BoE from returning to where we are today - i.e. on the verge of a 50bp rate hike," says Turner.

ING says the Bank will err on the hawkish side given high gas prices, a strong dollar and recent remarks from Bank officials that Sterling plays a role in monetary conditions.

"The BoE may be reluctant to push back against tightening expectations today and will probably welcome the 3% bounce in trade-weighted sterling over the last month," says Turner.

He notes the Euro is the largest weight in Sterling's trade-weighted basket and Euro weakness is making Sterling look good.

"Yet the BoE will be aware that monetary policy decisions are having a major bearing on FX pricing. Retaining language that it will still be prepared to act forcefully - even after the presumed 50bp rate hike today - could be enough to send EUR/GBP down to the 0.8275/8300 area," says Turner.

EUR/GBP down to 0.8275/8300 gives a GBP/EUR rise to 1.2048/1.2084.

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