financetom
Swiss Franc
financetom
/
Forex
/
Swiss Franc
/
Goldman Sachs See Pound-Franc Upside
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Goldman Sachs See Pound-Franc Upside
Mar 22, 2024 2:16 AM

Image © Adobe Images

GBP/CHF spot at publication: 1.2340Bank transfer rates (indicative guide): 1.1900-1.1990FX transfer specialist rates (indicative): 1.1960-1.2250More information on securing specialist CHF rates, hereForeign exchange strategists at Goldman Sachs are backing the British Pound to advance against the Swiss Franc, citing an improved UK economic outlook and steady reversal of the impressive buying demand for the Franc seen in 2020.

"While growth in the UK and Euro area has hit some unexpected headwinds, a number of tail risks have waned and we think it is enough for the risk premia in GBP and CHF to unwind," says Zach Pandl, an economist with Goldman Sachs in New York.

The Pound-to-Franc exchange rate has been in a steady uptrend in 2021, with the advance taking the pair from January 01's open at 1.2087 to current levels at 1.2340, the high for the year so far is at February 05's 1.2375.

"On a tactical basis, Sterling should be supported by its quick vaccine rollout which has helped suppress the risks from new covid variants," says Pandl.

The analyst also notes the Bank of England will unlikely be the headwind that it was heading into 2021 following the message from the February 04 Monetary Policy Committee meeting that negative interest rates were unlikely to be implemented.

"The BoE’s judgment that negative interest rates are not feasible for six months also removes one of the negative factors that had been weighing on the currency because that six-month window covers a time period when protective or pro-cyclical cuts would have been most attractive," says Pandl.

Goldman Sachs are also more constructive on the UK's outlook as a whole, saying international investments in the country could start to rise now that the EU and UK have agreed a post-Brexit trade deal.

"More structurally, international investors have significantly cut their exposure to UK assets since the Brexit vote, and could be coaxed back given the reduction in uncertainty and the UK’s high share of sectors that should have a lot of room to bounce back post-vaccines," says Pandl.

The Swiss Franc is meanwhile expected to underperform in a world that is returning back to growth following the shock of the covid-19 crisis of 2020, that saw strong demand for safe havens such as the Franc.

"CHF faced extraordinary appreciation pressure last year given its status as the European safe haven asset, particularly around periods of heightened political uncertainty. But a number of those risks have also relaxed following the Brexit deal, a more orthodox policy approach in Turkey, and now Mario Draghi’s invitation to become the next Prime Minister of Italy," says Pandl.

A broadly improved investor sentiment right across the board is therefore expected to play into a weaker Franc.

Goldman Sachs are looking for the GBP/CHF exchange rate to reach a forecast target at 1.30.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Swiss Franc Outlook: Weakness to Extend as EUR/CHF Eyed Above 1.20 by Analysts
Swiss Franc Outlook: Weakness to Extend as EUR/CHF Eyed Above 1.20 by Analysts
Mar 22, 2024
Above: The EUR/CHF is near the SNB's previously-maintained preferred level. Image (C) Pound Sterling Live. Traders will see little reason to stop selling the Franc now it has finally found the psychologically and historically significant 1.20 level again, according to major bank analysts. The Euro-to-Swiss Franc exchange rate is presently...
GBP/CHF Showing Potential For Further Declines, 1.3500 Eyed
GBP/CHF Showing Potential For Further Declines, 1.3500 Eyed
Mar 22, 2024
- GBP/CHF has probably peaked and rolled over - The pair is expected to extend its decline to the next major chart level at 1.3500 - Longer-term the trend remains bullish © moonrise, Adobe Stock The short-term trend has probably turned negative for GBP/CHF, and the pair is vulnerable to...
Dollar Pierces Major Trendline Against Swiss Franc as Bullish Trend Grows
Dollar Pierces Major Trendline Against Swiss Franc as Bullish Trend Grows
Mar 22, 2024
- USD/CHF has broken above a key chart level which opens the door to further gains - The pair's upside potential may stretch to 1.0250 - Commerzbank posits a more conservative target at 1.0039 © moonrise, Adobe Stock The US Dollar has reinforced its uptrend against the Swiss Franc after...
Further Swiss Franc Weakness to Allow EUR/CHF to Rise to 1.22 warn Julius Baer
Further Swiss Franc Weakness to Allow EUR/CHF to Rise to 1.22 warn Julius Baer
Mar 22, 2024
- EUR/CHF to rise to 1.22 over next 12-months, says Julius Baer - Rumours central bank may start to raise interest rates to prevent 'overheating', premature - Trend to extend for some time until rates' gap gradually closes © Goroden Kkoff, Adobe Stock The Swiss authorities are likely to take...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved