financetom
Pound-Dollar
financetom
/
Forex
/
Pound-Dollar
/
Fed Won't Cut Until September, More Dollar Strength Likely
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Fed Won't Cut Until September, More Dollar Strength Likely
Mar 22, 2024 2:18 AM

Image © Adobe Images

More disappointment is in store for investors hoping for a string of U.S. interest rate cuts to boost equity markets and send the Dollar lower.

According to Nordea Bank - one of Scandinavia's biggest lenders and investment banks - the Federal Reserve "can no longer be certain the job is done".

A string of stronger inflation and activity data suggests the Federal Reserve "can no longer be sure inflation is on a fast track to 2%," according to Lars Mouland, Chief Credit and Rates Strategist at Nordea.

The Dollar rose sharply on Tuesday after U.S. inflation surprised to the upside and analysts pointed out that there was evidence of broad-based inflationary pressures rebuilding in the price basket.

"We now expect the first 25bp rate cut in September, followed by another in December and March 2025," says Mouland.

Above:"US activity data have increased markedly after a soft patch coming into the December FOMC meeting" - Nordea.

Markets are currently fully priced for the first Fed rate cut from the Fed to fall in June, whereas at the start of the year, the first cut was priced for March.

The steady retreat in expectations from March to June has been accompanied by higher U.S. bond yields and a stronger Dollar.

As such, should Nordea be correct and this repricing must fall back to September, there is further Dollar strength in store.

Equity markets have nevertheless weathered the repricing in expectations, but this could change in the coming weeks as it becomes clear financial conditions must tighten as lending rates increase.

"As rate cut expectations wane, higher interest costs will tighten financial conditions. In combination with a slew of geo(political) risks, we should then see a more cautious approach to investment, hiring and spending which will help deliver a lower price pressure," says Mouland.

He says that by leaving monetary policy slightly on the tight side by lowering rates by only 75bp, the Fed will help balance an economy operating above potential with near full employment and strong public spending.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
The GBPUSD price gets a positive close - Forecast today - 19-06-2024
The GBPUSD price gets a positive close - Forecast today - 19-06-2024
Jun 19, 2024
GBPUSD Price Analysis Expected Scenario The GBPUSD price ended yesterday above 1.2700$ level, hinting at a potential recovery, but faces negative pressure from the EMA50, which could lead to a decline. Therefore, it is preferable to stay aside until clearer signals for the next trend emerge. Continuation of the rise and breaching 1.2730$ will likely push the price to build...
The GBPUSD price awaits confirmation signal - Forecast today - 20-06-2024
The GBPUSD price awaits confirmation signal - Forecast today - 20-06-2024
Jun 20, 2024
GBPUSD Price Analysis Current Situation The GBPUSD price is still stuck between key levels represented by 1.2700$ support and 1.2730$ resistance. As mentioned yesterday, the price needs to breach one of these levels to determine its next direction clearly, keeping our neutrality valid for now. Key Levels and Targets Breaking below the support at 1.2700$ will put the price under...
The GBPUSD price attacks the resistance - Forecast today - 18-06-2024
The GBPUSD price attacks the resistance - Forecast today - 18-06-2024
Jun 18, 2024
GBPUSD Price Analysis Expected Scenario The GBPUSD price attempted to breach the $1.2700 level, but it returns to decline by todays open to keep the chances valid to continue yesterdays suggested negative scenario, which targets $1.2580 areas as a next main station. Moving below the EMA50 supports the continuation of the expected bearish trend, noting that breaching $1.2700 will stop...
BoE holds interest rates unchanged
BoE holds interest rates unchanged
Jun 20, 2024
The Bank of England voted to hold interest rates unchanged at the June 20 policy meeting for the seventh meeting in a row at 5.25%, the highest since March 2008, matching analysts expectations. ...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved