Euro exchange rates sold off heavily over the course of the week out of fears the European Central Bank will try for force it back from recent peaks after the common currency reached a point Tuesday where it had gained 13.5% against the US dollar and more than 7.5% against the pound sterling.
“We expect Mario Draghi to express concern about this and explicitly mention that the stronger euro is the main reason the ECB has lowered its inflation projection and that there is further downside risk,” says Pernille Bomholdt Henneberg, chief analyst at Danske Bank.
The ECB meets next week and will announce its latest set of monetary policy decisions on Thursday, September 07, at 12:45 pm London time before Mario Draghi leads a press conference 45 minutes later.
Economy watchers and market strategists are now unanimous in expecting the bank to speak out about the recent rise in the euro, possibly blaming it for any downward revisions to the inflation forecasts that are due to be updated.
“An ECB set to address the pace of EUR appreciation should help put a lid on EUR/USD near term...dips in EUR/USD will be shallow and short lived, as the underlying forces for euro strength are strong in the current environment,” Henneberg and her team wrote to clients Friday.
But there is also a consensus building that suggests eurozone policymakers will be powerless to prevent further gains for the currency.
“In our view, this means that it will require an ECB that is willing both to backtrack on exit talks and to dig deeper still into its toolbox to in order to stem a continued EUR/USD uptick,” say the Henneberg’s team.
Danske made its call Friday morning - long beforeUS nonfarm payrolls and average wage growth numbers were found so wanting, with the world’s largest economy adding just 156,000 new jobs during August, while the pace of wage growth slowed.
“The appreciation of the EUR reflects US and UK weaknesses at least as much as euro area strength, and depends crucially on developments beyond the control of the ECB,” Barclays analyst Philippe Gudin chimed on Friday.
Since then the euro to US dollar rate has risen by close to 100 points, to trade around the 1.1980 level, before hide tailing it back below 1.1900.
The pound to euro rate has held onto much of its recent gains, breaking above 1.0900 for the first time since mid-August, aided by stronger than expected manufacturing data and an evolving narrative that is beginning to suggest a rate hike may soon come back on the table at the Bank of England.
Nonetheless, at least as far as the euro to US dollar exchange rate is concerned, analysts, economists and strategists remain bullish.
“While the cross has corrected slightly this week, we expect the uptrend to continue and recommend a buy-on-dips strategy,” says Henneberg.