Needless to say, the ECB kept all aspects of Eurozone monetary policy unchanged following its December meeting even though, on a brighter note, it revised up forecasts for economic growth - especially in 2018.
In truth, few analysts really believed the ECB would firm up an end-date for its stimulus reduction program, particularly because it hasn't yet started the reduction in bond buying announced back in November.
Forecasts showing inflation still running below the central bank’s target in 2020 were probably what hurt the common currency the most as the market has no chance of seeing an interest rate rise from the ECB until consumer prices can sustain a return to 2%.
The Euro-to-Dollar rate was quoted 0.35% lower at 1.1794 after the London close while the Euro-to-Pound was down 0.57% at 0.8776.
Eurozone economic growth is forecast to come in around 2.4% for 2017, 2.3% in 2018 and at 1.9% in 2019 - all numbers that have been upgraded since the last round of projections. 2020 will see the economy expand by 1.7% in 2020, according to the ECB.
Inflation forecasts were revised up for 2018, to 1.4% from 1.2%, but prices are seen growing by just 1.7% in 2020. The latter forecast is disappointing because it puts inflation below the ECB's 2.0% target for as far as the eye can see.
The ECB reiterated its commentary on quantitative easing from the last meeting, saying it will cut the rate of bond purchases from €60bn per month to €30bn in January but continue the program until September 2018 “or beyond”.
All interest rates were held unchanged, with the overnight lending facility still at 0.0%, the marginal lending facility at 0.25% and deposit facility still negative at 0.40%.
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"President Mario Draghi sounded more upbeat about the economic outlook and expressed greater confidence about inflation returning to the ‘close to, but below, 2%’ target over the medium term. He noted a “strong pace of economic expansion and a significant improvement in the growth outlook."
"Looking ahead, we expect the ECB to wind down its asset purchase programme after next September, possibly communicating its intentions around July."
"By running a story in which growth momentum solidifies but the ECB remains to be convinced on the sustained nature of inflation’s recovery, the GC can keep markets guessing and move into a more comfortable waiting period through 2018."
"But we note that, despite clearly stronger GDP forecasts, the ECB’s own projections for core inflation have actually been revised further down throughout next year, de facto delaying the time of a clearer acceleration to 2019 and 2020."
"This is supported by the relatively strong growth forecasts released today while the inflation forecasts, while improved in 2018, still show no sign of a meaningful pick up, with the new forecast for 2020 inflation coming in at 1.7%."
"The ECB’s confidence is rising, but not sufficiently yet to announce any changes to the purchase programme."
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