We would want to see a break above the trendline of the mini-down-move for greater confirmation of a reversal of the trend, however.Pound Sterling's 1.71% decline against the Euro month-to-date appears to be fading.
The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) has reached the bottom of a range between 1.13 and 1.20 within which it has been trading all year.
Whilst it is unlikely to break below the floor there are few signs of price action reversing yet either.
This should provide some assurances to those watching this market with the intention of making an international payment in the near-future.
The mini-downtrend from the 1.20 April highs is still intact and therefore capable of breaking lower, and entering the fresh pastures below 1.13.
And whilst it may seem unlikely, a break below 1.1275 would probably confirm a breakout from the range and a move lower to an initial target at 1.1200.
The MACD is not signalling further downside, however, and the little pattern it has formed at the cycle lows (circled) is a bullish reversal pattern on an indicator, suggesting a reversal of that indicator, and therefore the actual exchange rate too.
We would want to see a break above the trendline of the mini-down-move for greater confirmation of a reversal of the trend, however.
Given the trendline remains intact it is too early to speculate about such a reversal.
Fundamental analysts stress how undervalued the Pound is to the Euro and that it would require another ‘shock’ to go substantially lower.
An example of such an event might be the dawning realisation of a ‘hard’ Brexit, suggests strategist Valentin Marinov of Credit Agricole, in a recent note about the EUR/GBP - the inverse of GBP/EUR.
Because it is so undervalued the path of least resistance for the pair would be up – further suggesting the potential for a reversal at the current juncture.
Whilst the speech from Bank of England’s (BOE’s) chief economist Andy Haldane on Wednesday helped give the pair a boost, the gains were soon given back.
Haldane said that he was ready to vote for an increase in interest rates relatively soon, which came as a, “major surprise because Mr Haldane has long been a known dove,” noted Forex.com’s Fawad Razaqzada.
This was in stark contrast to governor Carney’s stance expressed at his Mansion House speech on Tuesday, where he poured cold water on expectations of a hike, saying that wages were too “anaemic” to entertain such a notion.
Haldane’s change of stance and the vote of 3 to 5 in favour of hiking interest rates at the last BOE meeting is indicating once again that interest rates may start rising quicker than previously imagined, which would be positive for the Pound.
As such, the BOE is comparatively hawkish when compared to the European Central Bank (ECB), whose rhetoric suggests they still do not see conditions as ready for increasing rates or dismantling their extremely accommodative monetary policy programmes.
This further indicates that the Pound looks like the one with the potential to gain, rather than the Euro, supporting an upside bias for the pair in the long-term.
"We continue to suspect that markets are underpricing the probability of a BoE policy adjustment. We suspect that as with the Fed, the threshold of removal of emergency measures is significantly lower than standard interest rate hikes," says Peter Rosenstreich, an analyst with Swissquote Research.
Markets are now pricing in 12bp of hikes by end of 2017.
"To materialise our constructive GBP view, we see long GBPCHF as the ideal position," says Rosenstreich.
First, Haldane was not part of the three MPC members that dissented last week, demanding an immediate 25bp hike in interest rates.
Second, his remarks contrast with those of BoE’s governor Mark Carney, which reflected a far more cautious tone concerning domestic demand and he was seen as pushing back the possibility of an interest rate hike anytime soon.
Carney's is the right stance to adopt suggests Campanella.
Yet, uncertainty has risen and that comfortable majority in the MPC that does not want to tighten policy looks threatened.
“The shift in Andy Haldane’s stance suggests that there is now a growing divide among the ranks of the monetary policy committee,” says Campanella.
As such, UniCredit believe it is very difficult to know how deep it is (or will become in the future) but it seems to create an extra layer of complexity for figuring out Sterling developments.
“Fundamentally, we remain EUR/GBP bulls and do not anticipate a BoE rate hike anytime soon, but we suspect that sterling’s sensitivity to headline news will increase even further, potentially leading to rollercoaster reactions in the short term. We would advise booking profits in EUR-GBP longs for now and staying on the sidelines,” says Campanella.