financetom
Australian Dollar
financetom
/
Forex
/
Australian Dollar
/
Australian Dollar Upmove to Persist say Technical Analysts
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Australian Dollar Upmove to Persist say Technical Analysts
Mar 22, 2024 2:17 AM

The Aussie Dollar will continue rising suggest studies carried out by technical analysts at Société Générale and Commerzbank who have drawn their conclusions from studying charts of the pair.

"AUD/USD has evolved within a large inverse Head and Shoulders which denotes signs of an upside reversal," says SocGen's Stephanie Aymes.

Inverse head and shoulders are strong bullish reversal patterns composed of three troughs at similar levels, which end up forming a bottom in the market.

The middle trough is lower than the other two and composes the 'head' of the head and shoulders.

The troughs either side are at a similar level and compose the 'shoulders' of the pattern.

The pattern is activated by a break above the neckline at the level of the two intervening peaks.

"It has now confirmed the pattern and sustaining above 0.7570, a larger up trend looks on cards first towards April 2015 highs of 0.8165 with next target at 0.8460," says Aymes.

If there is a bearish counter-move, however, the analyst notes support at the 0.7750 level.

SocGen is not the only bank which is bullish the Aussie, Commerzbank's Karen Jones is also, although less exuberantly.

"The cross has broken higher from a large triangle formation that targets eventually 0.8715 (one year + target)," says Jones, who identifies the significant pattern as a triangle rather than an inverse head and shoulders (we concur).

Short-term, however, she is less bullish, as the pair keeps hugging a trendline as if it is using it as a 'crutch'.

"AUD/USD continues to recover from the 3-month uptrend at 0.7888 (redrawn), intraday Elliott wave counts imply that the market will struggle to make further headway.

"Below the uptrend lies the 0.7808 current August low, which guards good support at 0.7748/41. It is where the February and

March highs are located and while above here the market will remain bid," said Jones.

Our own view share similarities with both the above in that it is bullish, with a target in the mid-80s.

On our chart, we note the large triangle which recently finished forming on the weekly chart and then broke to the upside (see below).

The pattern qualifies as a triangle because it contains the minimum of five constituent waves - A, B, C, D, and E.

The breakout has not reached the target for the triangle at 0.8440, which we calculated using the standard method of taking the height of the triangle at its widest point, multiplying it by the golden ratio of 0.618, and extrapolating it higher from the point of the break.

The exchange rate recently stalled at the 200-week moving average (MA) at 0.7965 and has had difficulty moving above this level since.

It is often the case that prices have great difficulty in moving above the dynamic support or resistance offered by major moving averages, and we cannot be sure it will be successful, however, if the exchange rate manages to break above the previous highs at 0.8066 it will confirm a continuation higher to the eventual target at 0.8440, which the odds favour it eventually reaching.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Australian dollar exchange rates: AUD heads lower BUT beware the reversal
Australian dollar exchange rates: AUD heads lower BUT beware the reversal
Mar 22, 2024
By Rob SamsonThe Australian dollar (AUD) has weakened against all of its major peers on speculation that the currency’s recent leap to 90 US cents was overdone.The Aus dollar has fallen for the first time in four days versus the USD’, retreating from the highest level in almost a month,...
Bargain hunting spree pushes AUD higher
Bargain hunting spree pushes AUD higher
Mar 22, 2024
The ‘Aussie’ rallied against a number of its most traded peers including the Pound and US Dollar as traders embarked on a bout of bargain hunting. The currency pushed close to US90 cents as investors sought to buy the ‘Aussie’ on the cheap. The bout of buying meant that the...
Australian Dollar in strong advance against British pound; GBP/AUD @ 1.8291
Australian Dollar in strong advance against British pound; GBP/AUD @ 1.8291
Mar 22, 2024
The Australian dollar to pound sterling exchange rate is therefore at 0.5467. (Note, the above are spot market quotes, your bank will affix a spread at their discretion. An independent FX provider will however guarantee to undercut your bank's offer, thus delivering more currency. Please find out more here). The...
Australian dollar (AUD) exchange rate hit by strong USD, falling job vacancies data
Australian dollar (AUD) exchange rate hit by strong USD, falling job vacancies data
Mar 22, 2024
By Will PetersThe Australian dollar (AUD) has come under pressure on Wednesday in an environment of US dollar strength. Also weighing is the latest set of ABS job vacancies data.A look at the global foreign exchange markets shows the Aus dollar to be under pressure: The pound sterling to Australian...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved