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Australian Dollar in Charge: China Welcomes Offer of US Trade Talks
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Australian Dollar in Charge: China Welcomes Offer of US Trade Talks
Mar 22, 2024 2:17 AM

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- U.S. and China to meet again in attempt to settle trade dispute

- Markets sniff an end to trade saga

- News comes on day markets were loathing more bad news

The Australian Dollar has been one of the better performers of the past 24 hours thanks to signs the U.S. and China are to engage in further meetings in an attempt to settle an ongoing trade dispute.

The trade dispute is a fundamental reason the Australian Dollar has been one of the worst-performing major currencies of the past two months.

The Wall Street Journal reports the US is proposing a new round of trade talks with China, while newswire reports on Thursday, September 13 confirm China's foreign ministry welcomes the offer of new talks with the U.S. on trade.

Senior U.S. officials led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin sent an invitation to Chinese officials, proposing a meeting in the next few weeks to discuss trade issues, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing their own sources.

The news saw the Australian Dollar leap up by 0.80% against the U.S. Dollar and 0.60% against the Pound.

The U.S. side has proposed having discussions in the coming weeks and has asked the Chinese to dispatch a ministerial-level delegation.

The proposed meeting might take place in Washington or Beijing, the report adds.

The Australian Dollar has been a victim of the ratcheting up of trade war fears owing to the country's heavy reliance on China as an export destination, markets are betting these developments are suggestive of an endgame being in sight for the trade tensions.

The news comes on a day markets were nervous Donald Trump would announce a fresh set of tariffs on $200BN worst of Chinese goods. There were fears that further notable downside was in store for the Aussie Dollar based on the assumption that the trade saga would get worse before it got better.

The relief being expressed by the currency on these newswire headlines is palpable.

"AUD jumps on news of new US-PRC trade talks," says Marc Chandler, a market commentator and Global Head of Currency Strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. "AUD at 3-day highs."

However, Chandler is a little cautious on buying the good news just yet.

"China was burned in May when Mnuchin appeared to have stuck deal under which China would buy more US goods. Trump abandons agreement and since then, US Treasury not seen as key by Chinese negotiators. Color me skeptical," says Chandler.

Furthermore, as reported earlier, Trump will want to head into the mid-terms with trade war headlines behind him as there is a calculation that the issue is playing well with both his base and swing voters.

"In the near-term, AUD/USD could decline and test 0.70 before recovering if the US-China trade frictions escalate," says Joseph Capurso, Senior Currency Strategist with Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Regardless of the clear need for caution, AUD is taking any relief it can get in the near-term.

The Australian-to-US Dollar exchange rate is quoted at 0.7186, at the time of writing on Thursday, September 13.

The Pound-to-Australian Dollar exchange rate is at 1.8144.

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