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GBP/AUD spot rate at time of publication: 1.8000Bank transfer rates (indicative guide): 1.7370-1.7490Transfer specialist rates (indicative guide): 1.7589-1.7838More information on specialist rates here.The Australian Dollar and other 'risk on' currencies that show a strong positive correlation with the performance of global stock markets were outperforming at the start of the new week, amidst a combination of investor relief at news that Pfizer's vaccine candidate has been successful and that the U.S. election cycle is coming to a conclusion.
Pfizer and partners BioNtech have said the vaccine is 90% effective in combating COVID-19 and they could finish assessing safety data during the third week of November and on are currently on track to seek regulatory approval as early as November.
"The risk-sensitive Australian dollar soared on Monday on hopeful COVID-19 vaccine news," says Randolph Donney, a Reuters market analyst. "Markets' effusive reaction to the vaccine news extended the rally in stocks and other riskier assets following last week's U.S. election results."
Pfizer-BioNtech have said they are optimistic that immunisation effect of its vaccine will last for at least a year, although it is not certain yet.
In a briefing out on Monday, Pfizer-BioNtech said they should be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, which would be enough to vaccinate 650 million people, by the end of 2021; only 50 million doses are expected to be available in 2020.
"I won’t lay with lots of comment about the trials as I am no vaccine expert, all I can say is this is a good news day. Whilst we are not there yet, news that this vaccine could be highly effective is the best thing markets could hope for. Public health officials will remind us there is a long road ahead, and many challenges will be faced along the way, but there is an enormous sense of optimism today – light at the end of the tunnel. Let’s just hope the vaccine deniers won’t get in the way, but 2021 just got a lot brighter," says Neil Wilson, Chief Market Analyst at Markets.com.
The Australian Dollar was competing with the Swedish Krona and Canadian Dollar for the title of the second-best performer stakes in the G10 basket of the world's largest freely-traded currencies, with Norway's Krone being the top-performer.
Amidst Aussie Dollar outperformance, the Pound-to-Australian Dollar exchange rate fell 0.42% to trade at 1.8013, the Australian Dollar-U.S. Dollar meanwhile rose 0.40% to trade at 0.7315.
Today is a great day for both science and humanity, as the first set of results from our Phase 3 COVID-19 vaccine trial provides compelling evidence of our vaccine’s ability to help prevent COVID-19. https://t.co/UjcoSD75tT
— AlbertBourla (@AlbertBourla) November 9, 2020"The Pfizer vaccine reportedly prevents 90% of the Covid infections in a conducted large study. That’s much more than the expected 60%-70% based on previous vaccine results. Investors for the first time see light at the end of the Covid-tunnel," says Mathias Van der Jeugt, an analyst with KBC Markets.
Risk-on assets such as the Australian Dollar started the week on the front foot after absorbing weekend news that Joe Biden won the U.S. presidential election. The foreign exchange market had an ambiguous stance on which candidate won; the more important outcome for the market is that the election cycle and the inherent anxieties it carries is nearing completion.
"With the election results essentially completed, the market seems ready to look forward to a strong year for the economy and earnings," says Michael J Wilson, Euquity Strategist at Morgan Stanley. "When bull markets simultaneously begin with a new economic cycle, they typically last for years, not months or quarters. As such, we believe this bull market has a long way to run both in time and price."
Modelling out from Natwest Markets meanwhile has the Australian Dollar sitting on their buy list on a long-term basis.
Natwest Markets' Cross-region Long Term Framework model suggests a buy call for the Australian Dollar as well as the Canadian Dollar Swedish Krona and Euro in the G10 space, "in line with our expectations of upside for EURUSD & AUDUSD," says Paul Robson, Head of G10 FX Strategy at Natwest Markets.
The model aims to predict currency performance six months in the future and on average predicts correctly 63% of times for G10.