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Weekly Jobless Claims Log Surprise Drop
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Weekly Jobless Claims Log Surprise Drop
Jan 2, 2025 10:08 AM

12:52 PM EST, 01/02/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Weekly applications for unemployment insurance in the US unexpectedly fell last week, while continuing claims also declined, government data showed Thursday.

The seasonally adjusted number of initial claims decreased by 9,000 to 211,000 in the week ended Dec. 28, according to the Department of Labor. The consensus was for a 221,000 print in a survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg. The previous week's reading was revised up by 1,000 to 220,000.

The four-week moving average came in at 223,250, falling by 3,500 from the previous week's average, which was revised up by 250 to 226,750. Weekly unadjusted claims rose by 7,441 to 282,998.

For the week ended Dec. 21, seasonally adjusted continuing claims totaled 1.84 million, compared with the Bloomberg consensus of 1.89 million. Continuing claims declined by 52,000 from the prior week's level, which was revised down by 14,000. The four-week moving average came in at 1.87 million, decreasing by 6,750 from the prior week's downwardly revised average, according to the DOL.

Although the drop in both initial and continuing claims is encouraging, "it is hard to get too excited about given the high degree of seasonal volatility during this time of year," Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said in a note to clients. "Christmas Day and New Year's Day are fixed dates on the calendar, but they are obviously not the same day of the week from year to year."

The largest decreases in initial claims for the week ended Dec. 21 were in New York, at 965, followed by Florida and West Virginia. New Jersey and Kentucky led the increases, according to government data.

Last month, the Federal Reserve reduced its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points and flagged fewer cuts ahead than projected in September. The Federal Open Market Committee's Summary of Economic Projections at the time showed that policymakers lowered their unemployment rate expectations for 2024 and 2025.

"Policymakers' views on the balance of risks will continue to evolve along with the data, but so far, they have shown that this evolution is going to be very gradual and incremental," Simons wrote Thursday. "Nothing in today's (jobless claims) data suggests that we have any reason to adjust this view."

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