financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Weaker US jobs data brings some relief to Fed
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Weaker US jobs data brings some relief to Fed
May 3, 2024 8:41 AM

(Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials, buffeted in recent months by concerns the economy might again overheat, got relief on Friday when jobs data for April showed a marked cooling in wage growth and a pace of hiring in line with levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The gain of 175,000 payroll jobs last month was the lowest in more than a year, while the 3.9% annual change in average hourly earnings was the smallest since May of 2021 and continued what has been a steady decline towards the mid-3% range that policymakers feel is consistent with their 2% inflation target.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, who has been among the more ardent voices on the steps needed to control inflation, said after the release of the data that her outlook remained "that inflation will decline further with the policy rate held steady."

Bowman, along with all other members of the central bank's policy-setting committee, voted earlier this week to keep the policy interest rate steady in the current 5.25%-5.50% range.

Traders responded to the jobs data by adding to bets that the Fed will deliver its first rate cut this year in September and likely follow with a second quarter-percentage-point cut in December. Both probabilities had been sliding recently as inflation data ran hotter than anticipated and Fed officials at their April 30-May 1 meeting noted the lack of recent progress in lowering the pace of price increases.

Other data, such as a slowdown in overall output, was dismissed as masking strong underlying demand, while a weak productivity figure for the first three months of the year raised the possibility that a key force helping to slow inflation may be of less assistance in the months ahead.

But Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his post-meeting press conference on Wednesday cited an array of indicators he felt showed the labor market moving into a better alignment between the hiring demands of employers and the number of people looking for jobs.

Data on job openings, and the rate at which workers are quitting jobs and at which firms are hiring workers, have all indicated some softening in the labor market.

In surveys of workers and businesses, answers to questions about the ease of finding jobs or filling positions "have come back down to pre-pandemic levels," Powell said.

The weaker-than-expected jobs gain in April was a wide miss from the 243,000 additional positions expected by economists in a Reuters poll.

But it also hit a spot that Powell and his colleagues may see as bolstering their hopes of a "soft landing" in which inflation is tamed without a major hit to employment or a painful recession.

While the jobless rate rose one-tenth of a percentage point to 3.9%, it remained below the 4.1% figure Fed officials at the median feel is aligned with their 2% inflation target.

The jobs growth last month also remained close to the monthly average of 183,000 seen in the decade before the pandemic, and above the roughly 100,000 that policymakers feel is needed to accommodate population growth.

"A 175,000 per month pace is still plenty good enough to absorb new entrants into the labor force and sustain a low unemployment rate," said Thomas Simons, senior U.S. economist at Jefferies.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Kashkari Vs. Goolsbee, Hawk Vs. Dove: What's Next For The Fed?
Kashkari Vs. Goolsbee, Hawk Vs. Dove: What's Next For The Fed?
May 10, 2024
Two Federal Reserve presidents, traditionally opposed in their respective stances, seem to agree on at least one matter concerning the future direction of monetary policy. Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve, leans toward the so-called “doves.” Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, is often recognized as a “hawk.” Both economists want more data to determine the...
Is This the Worst Time To Buy a Home?
Is This the Worst Time To Buy a Home?
May 10, 2024
The Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady, and mortgages are hovering over 7%. House prices are still rising. Housing supply is still not close to meeting demand.  Is this the worst time to buy a home? Polling shows we're at a modern low, at least in sentiment. For the second year in a row, over 75% of Americans say...
Oil Rig Count Falls by Three This Week, Baker Hughes Says
Oil Rig Count Falls by Three This Week, Baker Hughes Says
May 10, 2024
03:33 PM EDT, 05/10/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The number of oil rigs operating in the US decreased by three this week, according to data compiled by energy services company Baker Hughes ( BKR ) . The weekly count for oil dropped to 496 from 499 week to week, while gas added one rig at 103, Baker Hughes ( BKR )...
Fed officials mull whether rates high enough as inflation expectations jump
Fed officials mull whether rates high enough as inflation expectations jump
May 10, 2024
NEW ORLEANS (Reuters) -Debate over whether U.S. interest rates are high enough deepened among Federal Reserve officials this week, and may be stoked further after a key survey showed a jump in consumers' inflation expectations. There are ... important upside risks to inflation that are on my mind, and I think there's also uncertainties about how restrictive policy is and...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved