financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Weaker jobs signal, stronger prices highlight potential Fed dilemma
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Weaker jobs signal, stronger prices highlight potential Fed dilemma
Apr 1, 2025 11:45 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Lackluster new U.S. jobs data and a weak report on manufacturing highlight an emerging concern among Federal Reserve officials that employment could slip even as the risk of a tariff-driven round of inflation limits their ability to do anything about it.

Data on hiring and layoffs for February showed a job market that was potentially losing steam, with a drop in job openings, a slight rise in layoffs, worker quit rates similar to those during the languid job market of the mid-2010s, and near balance in the demand for and supply of available employees.

"The small signals the market is showing point to retrenchment rather than expansion," Allison Shrivastava, an economist with the Indeed Hiring Lab, wrote after the release of the job openings and layoffs data for February.

While investors following the report boosted bets the Fed would cut rates three times this year, more than central bank officials are projecting, a separate report on manufacturing sent a more confusing signal.

An Institute for Supply Management index of manufacturing activity fell, but its measure of prices paid by companies rose.

"The manufacturing sector is showing the first signs that stagflation may be coming for the broader economy," wrote Inflation Insights President Omair Sharif, noting the price measure in the survey rose at the fastest pace since mid-2022.

It could be a confounding situation for the Fed.

Policymakers have said they will keep their benchmark policy rate in the current 4.25% to 4.5% range as they wait for a clearer understanding of how the tariffs and other policy changes being rolled out by President Donald Trump influence the economy.

However, one near-term impact that concerns them - a weakening economy coupled with rising prices - offers no easy monetary policy response.

In a new analysis, economists from the Atlanta Fed said a recent survey showed corporate financial chiefs expected tariffs to push their prices higher this year while cutting into hiring and growth.

About half of the firms in the survey imported supplies from China, Canada or Mexico, and "these firms became less optimistic, expected lower revenue and growth, and expected higher price and unit cost growth," the authors said.

The tariffs Trump has unveiled so far include specific levies on imported metals and autos, with taxes on a broader set of nations anticipated on Wednesday.

New data on job growth and the unemployment rate for March will be released on Friday.

Atlanta Fed survey director Daniel Weitz said respondents facing new tariffs seemed caught in a "push and pull" between raising prices and shaving profits or canceling projects -- examples of how the coming period may show the Fed struggling to read an economy pulled in contradictory ways.

Import-exposed firms, he said, appear poised to initially raise prices roughly in line with their own costs, but after that "we see margin compression and then to the extent they can't compress any further they may have to cancel projects."

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
US Dollar Improves Early Friday Ahead of Fed Appearances, State Unemployment
US Dollar Improves Early Friday Ahead of Fed Appearances, State Unemployment
Mar 22, 2024
07:38 AM EDT, 03/22/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Friday, except for a decline versus the yen, ahead of a series of appearances by Federal Reserve officials that compensate for a lack of major US data. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to make opening remarks at a Fed Listens conference at...
US Congress scrambles to pass $1.2 trillion spending bill, midnight deadline looms
US Congress scrambles to pass $1.2 trillion spending bill, midnight deadline looms
Mar 22, 2024
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives and Democratic-majority Senate on Friday will scramble to beat a midnight government shutdown deadline by passing a $1.2 trillion bill keeping the government funded through September. If they succeed, it will end a more-than-six-month battle over the scope of Washington's spending for the fiscal year that began Oct. 1. If they...
U.S. companies' stock purchases via buybacks, M&A to hit 6-year high in 2024, Goldman says
U.S. companies' stock purchases via buybacks, M&A to hit 6-year high in 2024, Goldman says
Mar 22, 2024
(Reuters) - U.S. companies' purchases of domestic equities through more stock buybacks and corporate acquisitions will hit a six-year high of $625 billion this year, about as much as mutual funds and pension houses will offload, Goldman Sachs said. A surge in share buybacks and continued growth in cash mergers and acquisitions (M&A) will be the primary drivers of corporate...
Fed Chair Powell says pandemic has had lasting effects on economy
Fed Chair Powell says pandemic has had lasting effects on economy
Mar 22, 2024
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday opened a Fed Listens event on how Americans are experiencing the economy, saying the pandemic has had lasting effects and that to make good policy the U.S. central bank cannot rely only on macroeconomic data but needs to hear directly from people and businesses. He did not make any remarks about the...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved