financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
US Feb PCE prices index shows inflation picture still a conundrum
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
US Feb PCE prices index shows inflation picture still a conundrum
Mar 28, 2025 6:45 AM

(Reuters) -The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.3% in February after advancing by an unrevised 0.3% in January, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Friday. Economists had forecast the PCE price index gaining 0.3%.

In the 12 months through February, prices increased 2.5%, matching January's rise. Stripping out the volatile food and energy components, the price index rose 0.4% after an unrevised 0.3% advance in January. In the 12 months through December, core inflation increased 2.8% after rising 2.7% in January.

The U.S. central bank tracks the PCE price measures for its 2% inflation target.

MARKET REACTION:

STOCKS: S&P 500 emini futures added to a slight loss and were off 0.35%, pointing to a soft open on Wall Street

BONDS: U.S. Treasury 10-year yield moved a bit lower to at 4.3110% and the two-year yield was fractionally lower at 3.98%

FOREX: The dollar index pared a bit, 0.13% firmer

COMMENTS:

KIM FORREST, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, BOKEH CAPITAL PARTNERS, PITTSBURGH

"There's a blessing and a curse - consumer spending held up, but inflation came in a little hotter. The market looks a little 'sad' but not terribly sad... inflation was hotter than expected but it didn't come in terribly hot. I don't think we can say it's "killed" necessarily, but it's not quite enough to make people stop spending. I don't think we'll see bad things happen in the stock market today."

"The Fed is reluctant to cut rates because they're wary of adding to the inflationary burden, especially with new tariffs. This (data) looks like all things status quo, which should comfort the market."

ERIC BEYRICH, EQUITY PORTFOLIO MANAGER AND CO-CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SOUND INCOME STRATEGIES, NEW YORK

"So the core PCE at 2.4% is kind of in line with where it's been for a year. That's not a surprise the market-based PCE is actually down from where it was in December. It's just up from January so it's just within the normal noise. Basically, I don't see any real signal here that marked a change or really an acceleration. Everything was very slight. I know the markets are going to react to the blaring headlines perhaps but it's one of these things where you know there really isn't a lot to say. . . I think that the only story that you can take from this is the consumer spending was down, but it's not much of a story because the weather was dramatically worse this February than it was last year."

WASIF LATIF, PRESIDENT AND CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SARMAYA PARTNERS, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY

"Thesis that we've had for longtime is still intact - which is that inflation is still with and still lurking in the system. There are different reasons why it's stubbornly there, including concerns around tariffs and those situations. You could say that some of that was due to a lot of the buying by people in advance of the impending tariffs. But it's clear the tariff impact is driving inflation now - which ultimately might slip into areas of the market including stubborn wages etc."

ELLEN ZENTNER, CHIEF ECONOMIC STRATEGIST, MORGAN STANLEY WEALTH MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK (by email) 

"It looks like a "wait-and-see" Fed still has more waiting to do. Today's higher-than-expected inflation reading wasn't exceptionally hot, but it isn't going to speed up the Fed's timeline for cutting interest rates, especially given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs." 

JORDAN RIZZUTO, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, GAMMAROAD CAPITAL PARTNERS, NEW YORK"This data further lends credence to the marginal shift we're seeing towards a more stagflationary environment. "If inflation is picking up or running hotter coming into a period before we've actually seen the impact from tariffs, that's rather concerning. It also puts the Fed in an even tougher place since they're walking the tightrope between remaining restrictive enough to keep inflationary pressures at bay and still running accommodative enough to balance and support the economic picture.

"We expect to see more volatility at the front end of the curve and to the degree that we continue to get hotter than expected data. Consumers are stocking up on certain items ahead of time if they anticipate future price increases. But that said, the recent weakness in consumer confidence suggests that they're limited in the degree to which they can pull a lot of purchases forward.

"We expect the current environment to be characterized by higher volatility and we're certainly seeing that at the moment."

DAN SILUK, HEAD OF GLOBAL SHORT DURATION & LIQUIDITY, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, JANUS HENDERSON (by email)

"The latest PCE report presented mixed results, with headline figures aligning with expectations, while core numbers reveal a slight but notable increase, coming in a tenth higher than anticipated on both month-over-month and year-over-year metrics. This upward trend in surprises is underscored by the fact that this is the second-largest core PCE print in the last 24 months, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures. Such resilience in core inflation, persistently above the Federal Reserve's target, suggests expectations for a shift in monetary policy may need to be recalibrated, potentially affecting the timing of interest rate adjustments. As the market digests these figures, all eyes will be on the upcoming April 2nd Tariff Day, which represents the next significant event risk for investors. Even then, it is anticipated that this will likely pose more questions than provide answers, adding another layer of uncertainty in an already complex economic environment."

(Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Fed's Kashkari sees two rate cuts at most this year
Fed's Kashkari sees two rate cuts at most this year
Mar 6, 2024
(Reuters) - Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari on Wednesday signaled that stronger economic data since the start of the year will likely make it appropriate for the Fed to cut rates only twice, or possibly just once, this year. I was at two in December, Kashkari said in an interview on WSJ Live, referring to the number of...
China's exports top forecasts as global demand returns
China's exports top forecasts as global demand returns
Mar 6, 2024
BEIJING (Reuters) -China's export and import growth in the January-February period beat forecasts, suggesting global trade is turning a corner in an encouraging signal for policymakers as they try to shore up a stuttering economic recovery. China's improved export data joins those of South Korea and Germany, and Taiwan, who all saw their shipments top expectations over the first two...
Sturdy US private finances bolster 'no landing' view: McGeever
Sturdy US private finances bolster 'no landing' view: McGeever
Mar 6, 2024
ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -Murmurs are growing that the Federal Reserve might resist cutting interest rates at all this year as corporate and household balance sheets look to have taken only a glancing hit from rate hikes to date. While nominal debt levels are high and 500 basis points of cumulative hikes may yet open pockets of distress, companies and households...
UN data: Global patent filings drop nearly 2% as innovation falters
UN data: Global patent filings drop nearly 2% as innovation falters
Mar 7, 2024
GENEVA (Reuters) - Patent filings slipped last year by nearly 2% in the first fall in 14 years amid economic uncertainty, the U.N. patent agency said on Thursday, in a move it described as concerning. The World Intellectual Property Organization, which oversees a system for countries to share recognition of patents, reported 272,600 filings in 2023 which was a 1.8%...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved