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US Dollar Mixed Early Thursday After FOMC Signals Still on Track for Rate Cuts
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US Dollar Mixed Early Thursday After FOMC Signals Still on Track for Rate Cuts
Mar 21, 2024 5:09 AM

07:46 AM EDT, 03/21/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The US dollar was mixed against its major trading partners early Thursday -- up versus the euro and pound, down versus the yen and Canadian dollar -- as markets react to the Federal Open Market Committee's upward adjustment to 2024 economic growth and inflation forecasts, but no change to its expectation of three rate cuts this year.

The dollar was down against all four currencies compared with same time Wednesday before the FOMC meeting.

The updated Summary of Economic Projections did remove one rate cut from 2025, moving to three reductions, with a corresponding upward adjustment to the expected end-of-2026 rate.

As forecast, there was no change in the current target range for the federal funds rate at the two-day meeting, which ended Wednesday afternoon, leaving it at 5.25% to 5.50%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said also a decision on slowing the pace of balance sheet reduction is likely "fairly soon," but that no plan was agreed upon at this week's meeting.

Powell repeated that the FOMC is willing to wait for signs that the pace of inflation is slowing "sustainably" toward 2% before loosening policy and is willing to keep rates at their current level for longer if necessary.

Thursday's schedule is busy, with weekly jobless claims, Q4 current account data and the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing conditions reading for March all released at 8:30 am ET.

The S&P Global flash estimates for manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indexes in March are set to be released at 9:45 am ET, followed by existing-home sales and leading indicators data for February at 10:00 am ET and weekly natural gas stocks at 10:30 am ET.

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr is scheduled to speak at 12:00 pm ET.

A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Thursday:

EUR-USD fell slightly to 1.0919 from 1.0923 at the Wednesday US close but was up solidly from 1.0840 at the same time Wednesday morning. The Eurozone's preliminary manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction territory in March while the services PMI reading indicated slightly faster expansion, data released earlier Thursday showed. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for April 11.

GBP-USD fell to 1.2763 from 1.2787 at Wednesday US close but increased from 1.2695 at the same time Wednesday morning. The Bank of England is expected to make no change to interest rates when its statement is released at 8:00 am ET. Earlier Thursday, preliminary UK manufacturing PMI improved to near the breakeven point in March while services PMI fell slightly but continued to indicate expansion.

USD-JPY fell to 151.0621 from 151.2571 at the Wednesday US close and 151.6583 at the same time Wednesday morning. Preliminary Japanese manufacturing PMI improved slightly in March but still indicated contraction while services PMI showed faster expansion, data released overnight showed. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for April 25-26.

USD-CAD fell to 1.3495 from 1.3492 at the Wednesday US close and 1.3600 at the same time Wednesday morning. Canadian home prices for February are scheduled to be released at 8:30 am ET, followed by a speech by Bank of Canda Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle at 9:35 am ET. The next BoC meeting is set for April 10.

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