financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
US consumer inflation expectations soar in January on tariff fears
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
US consumer inflation expectations soar in January on tariff fears
Jan 10, 2025 11:36 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumers expect inflation to increase over the next 12 months and beyond, likely reflecting concerns that broad tariffs on imports pledged by President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration could raise prices for households.

The University of Michigan's survey showed consumers' one-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.3% in January, the highest level since May, from 2.8% in December. That raised the 12-month inflation expectations above the 2.3%-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Long-run inflation expectations soared to 3.3%, the highest level since June 2008, from 3.0% in December.

"For both the short and long run, inflation expectations rose across multiple demographic groups, with particularly strong increases among lower-income consumers and Independents," said Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu.

In addition to imposing or massively raising tariffs on imports, Trump has also promised to deport millions of undocumented immigrants, policies that economists have warned would stoke inflation.

Anger over high prices swept Trump to victory in the Nov. 5 election. Trump promised on the campaign trail to lower prices.

The surge in inflation expectations added to labor market strength in reinforcing the message from the Federal Reserve about fewer interest rate cuts this year.

Economists expect the U.S. central bank will keep its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range through the first half of the year.

The Fed has lowered its policy rate by 100 basis points since launching its easing cycle in September. It last month projected only two quarter-point rate cuts this year compared to the four it had forecast in September.

Soaring inflation expectations factored into the 5.25 percentage points worth of hikes in the policy rate in 2022 and 2023. Concerns about higher prices are chipping away at consumer sentiment, which had soared in the aftermath of Trump's victory.

The University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 73.2 this month, compared to a final reading of 74.0 in December.

"We see evidence in this survey that consumers expect tariffs to raise the prices of many types of goods," said Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"Reading between the lines, worries about the potential impact of some of Donald Trump's economic policies seem to be denting confidence too."

Separately, the LSEG/Ipsos Primary Consumer Sentiment Index dropped 3.2 points to 54.4 in January, after hitting a more than three-year high in December.

"The decline in sentiment is driven by diminished comfort making both major and household purchases, as well as

decreased confidence in investing in the future, and an uptick in the number that have lost their job," said Johnny Sawyer,

senior research manager at Ipsos.

"It remains to be seen if this month's decline is the start of a downturn, or just a blip on the radar."

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Cryptocurrencies Edge Lower Ahead of This Week's Inflation Data, Policy Rate Meeting
Cryptocurrencies Edge Lower Ahead of This Week's Inflation Data, Policy Rate Meeting
Jun 10, 2024
09:47 AM EDT, 06/10/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The biggest cryptocurrencies were slightly in the red to start the new week as traders await key data releases on inflation in the world's biggest economy and the Federal Reserve holds its latest meeting to discuss interest rates. Bitcoin was down 0.3% in the past 24 hours to trade at about $69,271 recently,...
The 'good' and 'bad' news inside the US jobs report
The 'good' and 'bad' news inside the US jobs report
Jun 10, 2024
(Reuters) - The latest U.S. payrolls report did little to settle the debate about where the job market is headed, with ample fodder for both soft-landing believers and doubters over whether the Federal Reserve can tame inflation without sending millions of workers onto the jobless rolls. True, the blowout gain of 272,000 jobs in May exceeded every single estimate among...
Wednesday's Fed Decision Following Release of May Consumer Price Index Likely to Keep US Dollar Supported, Says HSBC
Wednesday's Fed Decision Following Release of May Consumer Price Index Likely to Keep US Dollar Supported, Says HSBC
Jun 10, 2024
11:01 AM EDT, 06/10/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Federal Reserve officials are likely to reduce the number of interest rate cuts forecast for this year in Wednesday's dot-plot and lift their estimate of the long-run 'neutral rate,' supporting the US dollar, HSBC strategists said in their FX Snap note to clients early Monday. Noting the Federal Open Market Committee's two-day policy...
Fed Meeting Preview: Economists Predict Steady Rates In June, Fewer Cuts Ahead
Fed Meeting Preview: Economists Predict Steady Rates In June, Fewer Cuts Ahead
Jun 10, 2024
The Federal Reserve is poised to keep the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.5% for the seventh consecutive meeting in June, likely emphasizing that more time is needed to be confident that inflation will hit its target before contemplating any rate cuts. The key focus for market participants will be on the Fed’s updated quarterly Summary of Economic Projections, which will...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved