WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened to a record high in December, likely as businesses front-loaded imports of industrial supplies and consumer goods in anticipation of broad tariffs from President Donald Trump's new administration.

The deterioration in the goods trade deficit reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday raises the risk of a sharper slowdown in gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter than economists had anticipated when the government publishes its advance GDP estimate for the last quarter on Thursday.

The report also showed inventories at wholesalers and retailers being drawn down last month. A wider trade deficit as a result of an influx of imports is usually offset by a rise in inventories in the calculation of GDP. Trade and inventories are the most volatile components of GDP.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve slashed its fourth-quarter GDP estimate to a 2.3% annualized rate from a 3.2% pace earlier. The economy grew at a 3.1% rate in the July-September quarter.

"It seems reasonable to think that a substantial share is due to attempts to import raw materials before prices potentially jump after the imposition of new tariffs," said Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

"Those pre-emptive purchases probably continued into January. A similar wave of pre-emptive buying is likely putting upward pressure on underlying imports too."

The goods trade gap increased 18.0% to $122.1 billion last month, the largest since the government started tracking the series in 1992, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said. Goods imports increased $10.8 billion, or 3.9%, to $289.6 billion. Exports fell $7.8 billion, or 4.5% to $167.5 billion.

Trump has promised to impose or massively raise tariffs on imported goods, including from China, Canada and Mexico. The tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods could come on Feb. 1.

"The trade deficit, especially on a bilateral basis, will receive increased attention as the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative begins its examination of foreign trade practices to account for those that are unfair to the U.S., and the review of the Economic and Trade Agreement between the U.S. and China," said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide.

The Federal Reserve left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, having reduced it by 100 basis points since September. The policy rate was hiked by 5.25 percentage points in 2022 and 2023 to tame high inflation.

Stocks on Wall Street fell. The dollar gained versus a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields rose.

WEAK EXPORTS

The rise in imports followed a 4.3% surge in November. Last month's advance was led by an 18.9% jump in imports of industrial supplies, which include petroleum. Imports of consumer goods increased 3.1% while those of capital goods gained 1.7%. But imports of motor vehicles decreased 5.5%.

There were also declines in imports of food and other goods.

The drop in exports reversed a 3.3% increase in November. Consumer goods exports tumbled 8.5% and those for motor vehicles dropped 6.7%. Exports of industrial supplies plummeted 4.8% and shipments of other goods decreased 6.1%. Food exports fell as did those of capital goods.

Economists estimated that trade, which has been a drag on GDP for three straight quarters, could subtract as much as a full percentage point from growth in the October-December quarter. Still, the anticipated blow from trade was likely more than offset by strong consumer spending, which is keeping the economic expansion on track, thanks to a resilient labor market.

The economy is expanding well above the 1.8% that Fed regard as the non-inflationary growth pace.

A strong dollar because of the still relatively tight monetary policy stance could be making U.S. manufactured goods less competitive on the global market, undercutting exports.

The dollar gained 9.0% against the currencies of the United States' main trade partners in 2024.

With wholesale inventories falling 0.5% and stocks at retailers declining 0.3% last month, some economists were not fully convinced that pre-emptive buying of foreign goods ahead of tariffs accounted for the jump in the trade deficit.

"If firms were stocking up, then we should expect to see a spike in December inventories," said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets. "I would expect some giveback on the trade deficit in January."

The decline in wholesale inventories was across long-lasting manufactured and nondurable goods.

Retail stocks were pulled down by a 1.2% drop in inventories of motor vehicles and parts. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, retail inventories rose 0.2% after increasing 0.4% in November. This component goes into the calculation of GDP.

"The surprise declines in wholesale and retail inventories point to a big drag on growth from private inventories too," said Pantheon Macroeconomics' Allen. "That implies companies in these sectors have underestimated the rush of pre-emptive purchases, potentially encouraging even more imports ahead as inventories are rebuilt."