financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Hedge fund study on U.S. Treasury issuance fuels debate
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Hedge fund study on U.S. Treasury issuance fuels debate
Jul 26, 2024 4:53 PM

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A hedge fund study that said the U.S. Treasury last year effectively provided economic stimulus by moderating long-dated bond sales has sparked a debate in the bond market and a denial from the U.S. Treasury that said it was not aiming for such an effect.

The U.S. Treasury Department announced in November it would slow the pace of auction size increases of long-dated debt securities, a move that gave relief to bond markets rattled by previous increases in long-term debt supply.

This led to a decline in 10-year Treasury yields equivalent to the economic stimulus that would be provided by a one percentage point reduction in the Fed's policy rate, according to a study published by Hudson Bay Capital Management.

The study was authored by senior economic advisor Nouriel Roubini, an economist who rose to prominence for predicting the global credit crisis, and senior strategist Stephen Miran, who was an advisor for economic policy at the U.S. Department of the Treasury under former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, when Republican nominee Donald Trump was U.S. president.

"Our interpretation is that while the Fed was raising the Fed fund rate all the way to 5.5%, these (Treasury) policies were effectively pushing long yields lower," said Roubini in an interview. "The Fed has been trying to raise rates to pull down the economy and achieve a soft landing, but ... it looks like we could be in a no landing zone, with growth persistently above potential."

The study echoes suggestions by Republican senators last month that the Treasury deliberately increased issuance of short-term Treasury bills to give the economy a "sugar high" ahead of the elections. Roubini's paper drew a similar parallel.

The U.S. Treasury denied any such strategy.

The Roubini paper "suggests a strategy that is intended to ease financial conditions, and I can assure you one hundred percent that there is no such strategy. We have never, ever discussed anything of the sort," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who was appointed by U.S. President Joe Biden, said on Friday.

Assistant Secretary for Financial Markets Joshua Frost in a speech earlier this month addressed what he said were common misconceptions about Treasury issuance, saying the reduction in long-dated debt increases last year was modest.

The Hudson Bay's paper compares changes in Treasury issuance to quantitative easing - a bond buying program used by the Fed to stimulate the economy. Several bond market analysts said the comparison was overstated.

"At best, this ... kept rates marginally lower than they would have otherwise been," said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities USA. "This is highly consistent with Treasury's goal to obtain the best possible funding for the taxpayer and is not in any way a sinister plot to 'ease' monetary policy," he added.

The move demonstrated "higher than expected market sensitivity on the Treasury's part during a period of volatility," said Jonathan Cohn, head of U.S. rates desk strategy at Nomura Securities International.

"Treasury may not be a market timer, but it is also not market agnostic nor deliberately ignorant of market functioning," he added.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
U.S. companies' stock purchases via buybacks, M&A to hit 6-year high in 2024, Goldman says
U.S. companies' stock purchases via buybacks, M&A to hit 6-year high in 2024, Goldman says
Mar 22, 2024
(Reuters) - U.S. companies' purchases of domestic equities through more stock buybacks and corporate acquisitions will hit a six-year high of $625 billion this year, about as much as mutual funds and pension houses will offload, Goldman Sachs said. A surge in share buybacks and continued growth in cash mergers and acquisitions (M&A) will be the primary drivers of corporate...
Fed Chair Powell says pandemic has had lasting effects on economy
Fed Chair Powell says pandemic has had lasting effects on economy
Mar 22, 2024
(Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday opened a Fed Listens event on how Americans are experiencing the economy, saying the pandemic has had lasting effects and that to make good policy the U.S. central bank cannot rely only on macroeconomic data but needs to hear directly from people and businesses. He did not make any remarks about the...
US Congress scrambles to pass $1.2 trillion spending bill, midnight deadline looms
US Congress scrambles to pass $1.2 trillion spending bill, midnight deadline looms
Mar 22, 2024
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives and Democratic-majority Senate on Friday will scramble to beat a midnight government shutdown deadline by passing a $1.2 trillion bill keeping the government funded through September. If they succeed, it will end a more-than-six-month battle over the scope of Washington's spending for the fiscal year that began Oct. 1. If they...
US Dollar Improves Early Friday Ahead of Fed Appearances, State Unemployment
US Dollar Improves Early Friday Ahead of Fed Appearances, State Unemployment
Mar 22, 2024
07:38 AM EDT, 03/22/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Friday, except for a decline versus the yen, ahead of a series of appearances by Federal Reserve officials that compensate for a lack of major US data. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to make opening remarks at a Fed Listens conference at...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved