financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Fed's Musalem flags risk of rising inflation expectations and stagflation
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Fed's Musalem flags risk of rising inflation expectations and stagflation
Feb 20, 2025 9:23 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem on Thursday raised the twin risks of rising inflation expectations and difficult-to-address stagflation, in remarks that highlighted the potentially difficult choices facing the U.S. central bank.

While many of his colleagues say they regard inflation expectations as anchored, Musalem said he was concerned recent data showed they may be rising - a development that might force the Fed onto a more restrictive path.

"In the current environment, the stakes are higher than they would be if inflation was at or below target," Musalem said in comments prepared for delivery to the Economic Club of New York. "The risk that inflation expectations could become unanchored is higher than it would be if the economy was operating with slack and if consumers and businesses had not recently experienced a period of high inflation."

While he said he still feels inflation will converge to the Fed's 2% target, "market and some survey measures indicate that near-term expectations of inflation have risen notably over the past three months," Musalem said. If inflation does get stuck at current above-target levels or expectations do rise, "a more restrictive path of monetary policy relative to the baseline path might be appropriate."

Musalem's remarks did not give his current view about rate-cut expectations for this year.

But his warnings spoke to the possible complications surrounding the Fed's main narrative of falling inflation and eventual further rate cuts, an outlook that has remained the baseline even as officials acknowledge the possible impact on prices of new Trump administration import taxes and immigration rules.

That remains Musalem's core outlook as well, with monetary policy remaining restrictive "until inflation convergence is assured."

But coming policy shifts "could materially affect the path of the economy," he said. "The risks of inflation stalling above 2% or moving higher seem skewed to the upside ... An alternative and plausible scenario in which inflation ceases to converge, or rises, at the same time the labor market weakens must also be considered."

The combination of slowing growth and high inflation is a worst-case scenario for central bankers, leaving the Fed with tension between its employment and inflation goals and forced to choose which one to prioritize.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Zoomed Out | Critical Minerals — why India's current strategy to become self-reliant is so vital
Zoomed Out | Critical Minerals — why India's current strategy to become self-reliant is so vital
Nov 29, 2023
Internationally, there are genuine security concerns related to the criticality in building more diverse and dependable value chains for critical minerals, about their environmental and social sustainability, and technological challenges. While, India has taken the right steps for creating an ecosystem for accelerated exploration and production of critical and new age minerals, observes FICCI Mining Committee Co-Chair Pankaj Satija.
JPMorgan has a new way to gauge its green progress
JPMorgan has a new way to gauge its green progress
Nov 15, 2023
As the largest energy banker, JPMorgan is a frequent target of criticism over Wall Street’s role in the climate crisis. At the same time, the bank is a leading US arranger of green bonds, making it vulnerable to Republicans seeking to protect the fossil fuel industry.
India looking into 'freak' incidents like damage to Sikkim's Chungthang dam: RK Singh
India looking into 'freak' incidents like damage to Sikkim's Chungthang dam: RK Singh
Oct 18, 2023
Stressing on the need to have quick ramp up and ramp down energy sources for grid balancing, the minister described hydroelectric power's role as essential in the path to energy transition as wind energy is intermittent and the sun doesn't shine 24×7.
In fight to curb climate change, a grim report shows world is struggling to get on track
In fight to curb climate change, a grim report shows world is struggling to get on track
Nov 14, 2023
The State of Climate Action report released on Tuesday by the World Resources Institute, Climate Action Tracker, the Bezos Earth Fund and others looks at what's needed in several sectors of the global economy power, transportation, buildings, industry, finance and forestry to fit in a world that limits warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial times, the goal the world adopted at Paris in 2015. The globe has already warmed about 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the mid-19th century.
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved