financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Factbox-Major brokerages don't expect Fed rate cut till June
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Factbox-Major brokerages don't expect Fed rate cut till June
Mar 18, 2024 4:52 AM

(Reuters) - Some major brokerages expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in June, months later than what markets had predicted earlier this year, as sticky inflation fanned concerns of cutting rates too soon.

Fed minutes of the Jan. 30-31 session published last month signaled broad uncertainty among the policymakers about how long borrowing costs should remain at their current range of 5.25%-5.50% to bring inflation to the central bank's 2% target.

In the 12 months through February, consumer prices increased 3.2%, after advancing 3.1% in January, though the annual increase has slowed from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

Earlier in March, Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed was "not far" from gaining the confidence it needs in falling inflation to start easing rates.

Separately, a Reuters poll showed last week that a strong majority of economists believe the Fed will cut its key interest rate in June, in line with market expectations, though the likelihood has fallen close to 53% from a near 60% probability, according to CME's FedWatch tool. [ECILT/US]

Following are forecasts from some major brokerages on when they expect the first cut and the magnitude of expected cuts this year:

Brokerages First cut expected in Quantum of Federal funds Number of cuts

cycle cuts expected target rate (Dec expected in 2024

in 2024 (basis '24)

points)

Goldman Sachs June (25 bps) 75 4.625% Three

bps

UBS Global June (25 bps) 75 bps 4.50%-4.75% Three

Wealth

Management

Morgan Stanley June (25 bps) 100 bps 4.38%

June (25

Wells Fargo bps) 100 bps 4.25%-4.50%

June (25 75 Three

J.P. Morgan bps) bps 4.50%-4.75%

June Three

BofA Global

Research

Citigroup June 75 bps 4.6%

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath and Janane Venkatraman)

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Fed's balancing act could see June rate cut in play even with sticky inflation
Fed's balancing act could see June rate cut in play even with sticky inflation
Mar 29, 2024
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says the central bank is not growing more tolerant of higher inflation even though the latest policymaker projections raised the inflation outlook for the year without triggering a tougher monetary-policy response. But former Fed officials and other analysts see Powell nevertheless approaching a difficult moment trying to reconcile competing economic risks, a...
Chile's Lithium Vision: Ambitious Plans Shine While US Market Tries To Overcome Fragmentation
Chile's Lithium Vision: Ambitious Plans Shine While US Market Tries To Overcome Fragmentation
Mar 29, 2024
The Chilean government has unveiled an ambitious plan to double its lithium output over the next decade. The motivation behind this push lies in the nation’s recognition of the potential risks posed by lithium shortages, which could lead to significant economic repercussions for the second-largest producer of this metal critical for clean energy transition. Production needs to increase so that...
Inflation Ticks Higher In February: Is A May Interest Rate Cut In The Cards?
Inflation Ticks Higher In February: Is A May Interest Rate Cut In The Cards?
Mar 29, 2024
Personal consumption expenditures, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, rose as economists expected in February, leaving markets frustrated as to the likely timing of interest rate cuts. Key highlights from February’s Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report: The headline personal consumption expenditures price index rose by an annual rate of 2.5%, up from January’s 2.4% and in line with expectations....
US Dollar Rises Early Friday Ahead of Personal Income, PCE Prices, Advance Trade, Powell
US Dollar Rises Early Friday Ahead of Personal Income, PCE Prices, Advance Trade, Powell
Mar 29, 2024
07:35 AM EDT, 03/29/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Friday, except for a decline versus the yen, ahead of the release of personal income, spending, and price data and advance trade and inventory data, all for February, at 8:30 am ET, with most US markets closed for Good Friday. Chicago PMI and...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved