TL;DR

John Deaton sees three possible outcomes for the Ripple case after Genslers resignation: continuing the appeal, settling with a $125M fine, or a full dismissal though the last one is unlikely. Trumps positive crypto stance and recent policy moves could improve Ripples chances, with Deaton believing a decisive victory for the company is just a matter of time.

What Might Come Next?

Gary Genslers tenure at the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) might be over, but the lawsuit against Ripple remains ongoing. The former Chairman resigned on January 20 (the day Donald Trump officially became Americas 47th President) and was replaced by Mark Uyeda.

Gensler was considered an enemy of the cryptocurrency industry, while his successor stands in the opposite corner. Last year, Uyeda criticized the SECs previous leadership for its negative stance on the sector:

The Commissions war on crypto must end, including crypto enforcement actions solely based on a failure to register with no allegation of fraud or harm.

The XRP Army has interpreted the changes as a positive factor that could lead to a faster and potentially favorable resolution in the Ripple case. Most recently, John Deaton (an American lawyer representing thousands of XRP investors in the lawsuit) also gave his two cents.

He believes there are now three possible scenarios. The first involves continuing the SECs appeal. The securities regulator opposed a verdict from 2023 when Judge Torres ruled that XRP sales on public exchanges to retail investors did not constitute securities transactions.

The second option is a dismissal of the appeal. According to him, this would require Ripple to pay the previously ordered $125 million penalty. Recall that Judge Torres ruled that the company should settle the amount due to violating certain rules.

While the figure sounds substantial, it actually represents just a fraction of the $2 billion the watchdog initially asked for. Somewhat expected, many Ripple proponents viewed the decision as a major victory, while some of the companys executives promised to respect the courts ruling.

The third scenario seems like the most favorable (and most unlikely) for Ripple. According to Deaton, this includes the SEC withdrawing its appeal and scrapping the firms $125 million fine.

I dont see the SEC saying: No, were going to deny a judges ruling. So thats why I think the middle one is the option.

The SEC Looks Like the Underdog

Despite not outlining when the case might be officially over, Deaton believes Ripples victory is just a matter of time. He based his thesis on the fact that the current President of the USA Donald Trump has completely changed his stance on the digital asset sector, planning to make the country the crypto capital of the world. 

Last week, he doubled down on his supposed affection for the industry, launching a meme coin of his own. At first, the token, called Official Trump (TRUMP), experienced a spectacular price increase before heading south.

Most recently, Trump signed an executive order to review the creation of a National Digital Asset Stockpile. His initial intention was to establish a strategic BTC reserve in the US, but now the efforts scope seems to have expanded to other cryptocurrencies, too.