April 10 (Reuters) -
Aggressive tariffs on China-made clothes, bags and shoes by
U.S. President Donald Trump could benefit off-price retailers
such as TJ Maxx and Ross who rely on expansive sourcing
strategies and inventory management.
TJ Maxx-owner TJX Cos, Ross Stores ( ROST ) and
Burlington Stores ( BURL ) often acquire clothing, accessories
and other merchandise from U.S. middlemen -- not always
importing from factories overseas directly.
This will allow them to largely sidestep any direct hit from
the new China tariffs in the near term, investors and analysts
said.
"They're just buying unsold inventory from other places,"
said Brian Mulberry, client-portfolio manager at Zacks
Investment Management, referring to the typical off-price
business model of buying from department stores and clothing and
footwear manufacturers.
"Those tariffs," Mulberry said, "would have already been
paid" by the retailer who had imported the clothing or shoes
from China, he said.
To be sure, off-price retailers will face tariffs on some
imports.
Overall, TJX had bought products from 21,000 plus vendors
spread across more than 100 countries, according to its filing
for the year ended February 1. Typically less than 10% of the
merchandise the retailer purchases for its U.S. businesses are
directly imported from China.
TJX and Ross recently provided cautious annual sales and
profit amid uncertainty from the tariffs.
Off-price stores are also nimble in what they buy,
opportunistically snapping up anything that looks like a good
deal.
"There's more availability out there over the next six
months, even more than there's been, which is going to create
more buying opportunities for our teams," TJX CEO Ernie Herrman
said on a post-earnings call in February.
BARGAIN PULL
Off-price retailers are also poised to draw more shoppers
seeking out bargains amid higher clothing and shoe prices. The
chains typically offer discounts of between 20% and 60% as they
tend to acquire low-priced merchandise that is "off-season" from
manufacturers and retailers.
"The resounding sentiment from the off-price [executives']
C-suites is that the sector is well-positioned to take advantage
of any dislocation in the market due to the nature of the
business model," Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe said.
Last week, Trump imposed new tariffs on key sportswear and
apparel production hubs including Vietnam and Indonesia.
On Wednesday, in a stunning reversal, he paused most of the
hefty duties and increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%.
The sector is also set to benefit from Trump curtailing "de
minimis", or the exemption that allowed duty-free imports of
$800 or less, which was used by several retailers including
China's Shein, PDD Holdings ( PDD )-owned Temu and Alibaba's ( BABA )
AliExpress.
This could push shoppers to off-price stores for
alternatives for the cheap, typically fast-fashion products.
STOCKING RIGHT
Off-price retailers also tend to keep lean inventory levels,
contrasting with traditional retailers' practice of ordering
most of their goods far in advance before they appear on the
selling floor.
Average inventory days, or the number of days taken for the
stock to be sold for TJX and Burlington, decreased since 2023
during the three-month period from December to February, data
from LSEG IBES showed, indicating faster movement of products.
In comparison, the number of days taken for the stock to be
sold for Kohl's and Macy's has mostly increased during the same
period, according to the data.
LSEG, the financial news and data platform, calculated the
average inventory days for the retailers by dividing each
company's average inventory by the cost of goods sold during the
three-month period, an indicator of inventory management
efficiency.
"In this sort of off-price industry that we're in, we tend
to benefit from dislocation of the overarching retail market,"
Ross Stores ( ROST ) CEO James Conroy said during the company's March 4
conference call.
Shopper traffic in March at TJX Cos ( TJX ), Ross and Burlington
Stores ( BURL ) were up 7%, 4%, and 9%, respectively, according to data
firm Placer.ai. The data analytics firm measures traffic by
analyzing visit trends, trade areas and demographics among
others.
In contrast, shopper visits to Nike ( NKE ) stores dropped
10% in March, compared to the same period a year earlier. They
were down marginally at Kohl's and rose 2.8% at Macy's, but
smaller than at the start of the year in January, according to
Placer.ai.
(Reporting by Aishwarya Venugopal and Savyata Mishra in
Bengaluru; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)