July 25 (Reuters) - Making leveraged bets on Nvidia ( NVDA )
is likely to get much riskier if Wall Street's tech-led
selloff continues.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) designed to magnify the daily
moves in the chipmaker's shares by as much as two times have
been a popular vehicle for investors seeking to jump on the
stock's meteoric rise this year, with total assets swelling to
about $6.3 billion as of this week from only $342 million in
December 2023, according to data from CFRA.
But while the stock's roughly 130% year-to-date rally has
rewarded bullish bets, recent turbulence in tech shares could
amp up the risk for traders seeking to profit from Nvidia's ( NVDA )
gyrations.
Nvidia's ( NVDA ) shares fell by nearly 7% in Wednesday's selloff,
taking the leveraged ETFs down by as much as 13.5%. The S&P 500
index fell 2.3%, its worst loss since late 2022, as
investors reacted to disappointing earnings from Tesla and
Google. The chipmaker's shares were down about 3% on Thursday.
More turbulence could come next week, as investors await
results from Apple ( AAPL ), Microsoft Facebook-parent
Meta and Amazon.com ( AMZN ).
"Leverage goes both ways," said Todd Sohn, ETF analyst
at Strategas Securities. "It's great in a bull market, but when
expectations are so high that any nerves cause a stock to
unwind, the selloff is painful and quick."
The popularity of these ETFs is another example of how the
eye-watering surge in Nvidia's ( NVDA ) shares has pushed investors to
ramp up exposure to the stock, even as they increase the risks
to their portfolios if the company's fortunes turn.
"Leveraged ETFs are for people who are comfortable with
risk," Will Rhind, the CEO of GraniteShares, told Reuters in the
latest episode of Inside ETFs.
'VOLATILITY DRAG'
While it's not yet clear whether investors were net buyers
of leveraged ETFs tied to big tech stocks across the board
during Wednesday's selloff, both GraniteShares and REX Shares,
two of the asset managers that offer these products tied to
Nvidia ( NVDA ), said traders used the selloff as an opportunity to buy.
That would be consistent with investors' behavior over the
past few weeks. The GraniteShares 2x Long Nvidia Daily ETF
, which offers traders a daily return of double Nvidia's ( NVDA )
movements higher or lower, has attracted $1.06 billion of net
inflows in the last month, during which Nvidia's ( NVDA ) shares had
fallen by nearly 6% up to Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the T-Rex 2x Long Nvidia Daily Target ETF
has seen inflows on days when Nvidia's ( NVDA ) share price has
fallen, according to flows data from the company, and has pulled
in $75.7 million since the beginning of June.
The run-up in Nvidia's ( NVDA ) shares has also bolstered the
leveraged ETFs' popularity with short sellers, who seek to
profit from stock declines. Short interest in the GraniteShares
ETF hovered around 15% of outstanding shares for the first half
of July, compared to 1% in April, data from Vanda Research
showed.
These ETFs can be risky for those who don't use them as day
trading vehicles - which they are intended to be - and hold
longer term, analysts said.
Doing so can make investors vulnerable to so-called
"volatility drag," a phenomenon that over time can magnify gains
or losses even beyond the leverage the fund provides. That could
compound losses in a down market, because issuers reset the
exposure to Nvidia's ( NVDA ) underlying stock price every day.
"In choppy markets, these leveraged products that have to
buy the underlying stock when it goes up and sell when it goes
down can get crushed," said Bryan Armour, ETF analyst at
Morningstar.