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Severity, speed of Trump's tariffs took markets by
surprise
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Bankers worry the turmoil will erode revenue - and bonuses
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April 2 announcement derailed, delayed several IPOs, other
deals
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Tariffs cause 'confidence shock' for investors in US
assets
By Svea Herbst-Bayliss, Isla Binnie, Ross Kerber and Dhara
Ranasinghe
April 10 (Reuters) - With markets crashing after U.S.
President Donald Trump announced his latest tariffs, Citigroup's ( C/PN )
banking head Viswas Raghavan called a global meeting of senior
bankers on Monday and told them to get on the phone with their
clients.
Raghavan's message was simple, according to one banker on
the call: Stay close to clients because if you do not, a
competitor will. Raghavan told them to assure clients that Citi,
which nearly collapsed during the 2008 financial crisis, had
plenty of funds this time to weather the tariff storm, said the
banker, one of two who recounted the call.
Citi's global meeting, which has not been previously
reported, was one of many at banks across Wall Street since
April 2, when Trump unleashed a tariff war that has wiped out
trillions of dollars in market value across the globe - a
painful bleed that was only stanched on Wednesday when he
relented, announcing a 90-day pause on duties against some
countries.
Citi declined to comment. Raghavan could not be reached
after business hours on Wednesday.
In interviews, more than half a dozen investment bankers and
money managers said they had spent days talking to clients who
make everything from cars to insulated mugs to sportswear,
helping them grapple with the swift and dramatic consequences of
Trump's lurches on trade.
At Citi, Goldman Sachs ( GS ), Bank of America ( BAC ),
Lazard ( LAZ ) and elsewhere in conversations spreading into
this week, several bankers said, they strategized how to respond
to a flood of calls from corporate clients as they privately
worried about their own bonuses this year.
Goldman Sachs ( GS ) and Bank of America ( BAC ) declined to comment.
Lazard ( LAZ ) did not immediately respond to requests for comment
outside business hours.
'OH MY GOD'
The advice to corporate clients, several bankers said: Stay
away from forecasting too much, given the uncertainty from the
White House.
Clients were worried about jobs, the economy and credit, a
senior financial industry executive said: "We get on the calls
and people are saying, 'Oh my God, what's happening?'"
The flurry of behind-the-scenes conversations with clients,
some details of which have not been reported before, show how
Trump's decision to raise U.S. tariffs to their highest in more
than a century has sent shockwaves through the corporate world.
Uncertainty about Trump's policy direction is paralyzing
companies' decision-making and could have dire consequences for
the economy, analysts say. Trump's pause does not remove that
uncertainty.
"Even if the administration decides to de-escalate global
trade wars and shift their focus to other policy areas, we're
still not out of the woods," said Christian Hoffmann, head of
fixed income for Thornburg Investment Management in Santa Fe,
New Mexico. "Uncertainty remains exceptionally high."
In explaining his pause, Trump said people had been "jumping
a little bit out of line." He told reporters: "They were getting
yippy, you know," using a golf term for wrist spasms.
GENUINE DISBELIEF
While Trump had telegraphed plans to raise tariffs for
months before November's election, the severity and speed with
which he ratcheted up the levies took investors by surprise.
"There was genuine disbelief that this was happening," Seema
Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management in
London, said of her conversations the morning after the tariffs
announcement.
Trump's rapid escalation caused massive dislocations in
global markets, particularly in the United States, where foreign
investors saw new risks in formerly safe-haven investments like
Treasury bonds and the dollar - two anchors of the global
financial system.
One New York-based institutional investor said the most
senior personnel at his fund met last week and again after the
weekend to discuss how the volatility was impacting their
portfolio.
The investor, who requested anonymity to speak candidly,
said the risk team had scrutinized all their holdings for
comparisons with drawdowns during past crises, envisaging
potential losses on their equity positions of 10% or 20%. They
debated whether they should have hedged against the tariff risk
but decided it would have been too expensive, he said.
CalPERS Chief Investment Officer Stephen Gilmore said the
$500 billion retirement fund for California's public workers was
well positioned but "we aren't immune to these market
challenges," adding that the trade war could hit its investment
returns, to be reported on June 30.
"The new tariffs and other policy changes are creating the
kind of volatility that's reminiscent of the Global Financial
Crisis and the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic," Gilmore
told Reuters in a statement.
DEALS KILLED
Trump's April 2 announcement immediately derailed or delayed
several initial public offerings and other deals, according to
interviews with more than a dozen investment bankers, private
equity investors and portfolio managers.
One private equity investor in London who was scheduled to
sign the paperwork to acquire a midsize tech company in Europe
said he pulled the deal last Thursday.
Executives at New York ticket reseller Stubhub, Swedish
buy-now-pay-later firm Klarna and fintech company Chime - all of
which were scheduled to launch investor presentations this week
- watched the markets and waited before deciding by the end of
the week to delay their IPOs by at least a week or two, Reuters
has reported.
One M&A lawyer, requesting anonymity, said they had started
the year thinking it would be strong, with pent-up demand for
IPOs and other transactions. "But when the VIX pops up to
COVID-era levels, you can't do deals," they said, referring to a
volatility measure known as Wall Street's fear gauge.
Investors were already bracing for disappointment when big
banks start reporting first-quarter results on Friday. Global
investment banking fees fell 4.9% to $21.47 billion in the
quarter from a year earlier, according to Dealogic.
Bankers worry that this month's turmoil will further erode
revenue - and possibly bonuses next year - four bankers said.
"The problem is that there is a confidence shock when it
comes to investing in the U.S.," said Mabrouk Chetouane, head of
global market strategy at French asset management firm Natixis
Investment Managers. "The U.S. president is unpredictable for
investors. The rules can change overnight."