06:49 AM EDT, 03/11/2025 (MT Newswires) -- After a resounding end to 2024, where the United Kingdom's December gross domestic product shot up 0.4% month over month, Deutsche Bank sees continued positive momentum to start this year.
Where January GDP lands will be important for the bank's quarterly nowcast models. Deutsche Bank estimates January GDP expanding by 0.2% month over month, driven by increases in services and production -- with the former benefitting from stronger retail sales, and the latter benefitting from cooler weather and positive manufacturing growth.
Based on the bank's suite of top-down nowcast models, risks to its forecasts are broadly balanced.
The U.K. will release GDP for January on Friday, at 3 a.m. ET.
The recent string of positive economic news suggests potential upside risks to Deutsche Bank's 0.3% quarter-over-quarter GDP growth projection for Q1 2025 and 1% GDP growth projection for the year.
Rising confidence and a stabilizing labor market will be important for those risks to crystallize, however. The bank will be keeping a close eye on both over the coming months.